Token unlock events are becoming significant moments that can swing market sentiment and impact token values. One of the latest developments is Celestia’s substantial release of 176 million TIA tokens, which has triggered notable selling pressure and raised questions among investors and analysts. Token unlocks like this one typically draw mixed reactions: while some view them as a healthy way to expand token distribution, others fear they could lead to a flood of new tokens on the market, potentially lowering prices.
In the case of Celestia, the reaction has been swift. TIA’s price has dropped sharply following the unlock, with bearish sentiments growing as concerns over selling pressure rise. This event has highlighted how token unlocks can affect market confidence and create volatility, particularly when a large supply of tokens becomes available to holders who may choose to sell. This article delves into the market dynamics surrounding Celestia’s token release, exploring the price impacts, trader sentiment, and potential price trajectory for TIA as it attempts to stabilize amidst the pressure.
Celestia’s Token Release vs Sell-Off
On Wednesday, Celestia unlocked a substantial 176 million TIA tokens, worth approximately $890 million at current prices. This sudden increase in circulating supply has added substantial pressure to TIA’s price, which is currently hovering around $4.68—a nearly 9% decrease over the last 24 hours.
Token unlock events often introduce an element of uncertainty and unease among investors, who may anticipate increased selling activity from holders looking to capitalize on their newly available tokens. This has been evident with TIA, although it’s worth noting that not all of the unlocked tokens are immediately set to hit the market.
In a recent social media post, Taran Sabharwal, CEO of Stix trading platform, clarified that Celestia’s 21-day unstaking period means those aiming to sell unlocked TIA tokens have likely already begun the process. This indicates that the actual selling pressure from this unlock could amount to around 92.3 million TIA, or approximately $460 million.
Selling Momentum Builds – But With a Twist
An analysis of TIA’s one-day price chart reveals an uptick in selling activity following Celestia’s significant token unlock. As of now, TIA’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), an indicator used to assess whether an asset is overbought or oversold, has dropped to 38.46. This downward trend suggests that selling is currently outpacing buying interest.
Interestingly, despite the selling pressure, TIA’s futures traders appear to be more optimistic. This shift is reflected in a positive funding rate—a fee paid between long and short traders in the perpetual futures market to align the contract price with the spot price. According to Coinglass, TIA’s funding rate turned positive for the first time since September 10, hinting at potential renewed bullish sentiment among traders. A positive funding rate can signal that traders are taking more long positions, anticipating a price increase.
TIA Price Outlook for 2025
Currently trading at $4.76 TIA/USDT after a 9% decline on Gate.io, TIA has dipped below the lower boundary of a horizontal price channel established since July. Within this channel, $6.83 serves as a resistance level, while $4.71 marks a critical support.
If the selling trend persists, TIA’s value could decline further, potentially nearing a recent multi-month low of $3.72. Alternatively, if buyers step in at the $4.71 support, TIA may rebound, aiming for a breakout above the $6.83 resistance. Surpassing this level could propel TIA’s price past $7, a point it has not reached since June. The evolving market response to Celestia’s token unlock will be essential to monitor in the coming days, as TIA attempts to stabilize and regain ground.
Looking toward 2025, Celestia’s TIA token is forecasted to show moderate growth with a range of price projections, reflecting both bullish and cautious outlooks from market analysts. Some sources suggest a price of around $9.26 at the lower end, with the possibility of reaching a high of $13.26 under optimal conditions. The anticipated average price for TIA in 2025 is estimated to hover near $11.50, indicating steady progress fueled by ongoing network developments and adoption of its modular blockchain solution.
Factors supporting this growth include increased market demand for Celestia’s data availability solutions, which are central to its blockchain’s role in enabling scalable decentralized applications. Market sentiment around TIA could also be positively influenced by overall trends in decentralized finance (DeFi) and data-oriented blockchain infrastructure. However, broader market volatility and potential selling pressure from token unlocks could affect TIA’s price stability.
As TIA is projected to stay below the $15 mark through 2025, some analysts view it as a gradual growth asset rather than a rapid spike candidate, making it appealing to long-term holders. This conservative growth trajectory suggests that while TIA might not see explosive gains, it has the potential for incremental value appreciation if the demand for its technology continues to rise and market conditions remain favourable.
