Sygnum Bank’s fourth quarter outlook sees crypto markets under macro pressure, but Ethereum may be positioning for a major rally.
Summary
- The crypto bull market is on thin ice, says the latest Sygnum report
- Macro pressure crushed the altcoin rally that traders expected
- While most are looking at Bitcoin, Ethereum may be preparing for a major move
While altcoins face near-term headwinds, there’s still time for a reversal. According to the Sygnum Bank’s latest market outlook for the end of 2025, macro conditions are putting pressure on altcoins. However, Ethereum is well-positioned to rise in Q4.
According to the report, just two weeks ago, traders were calling for the altcoin season. Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) were surging, while Bitcoin dominance falling 12%, all signs of an altcoin rotation. However, when Donald Trump reignited the tariff war, overleveraged altcoin positions began sinking.
“The disappointing response to the Fed’s recent rate cut announcement further cut hopes of the highly-anticipated altseason short,” Sygnum wrote, adding that the “pattern of past crypto market cycles indicates we may be approaching the cycle top.
This negative market momentum convinced long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders that it was time to sell. Notably, Bitcoin had just reached its all-time high of $126,198 on October 6.
Altcoin rally could still come from treasury demand
Still, despite a missing “Uptober,” crypto markets are still in good shape when it comes to fundamentals. For one, Sygnum points out the growing treasury demand for altcoins, which may fuel their rise. What is more, liquidity is high, institutional adoption is rising, and regulation continues to improve.
While the government shutdown has delayed crypto-friendly legislation and ETF approvals, these are likely to move in a favorable direction. So far, there are more than 150 pending approvals for crypto ETFs, including those from BlackRock, Fidelity, and other major financial institutions. Once approvals start rolling in, sentiment is likely to turn positive again.
Ethereum is in a firm position, with corporate reserves now 15x higher at 24 billion. This contributes to 40% of Ethereum being locked out of circulation, which puts a major upward pressure on demand.
