Tron, the crypto project founded by Justin Sun, remains in a bear market after falling more than 40% from its highest level in 2024.
Tron (TRX) price dropped to $0.2290 on Friday, but several fundamental and technical factors point to an eventual rebound.
TokenTerminal data shows that Tron is now the second-largest fee earner in the crypto industry after Tether. So far this year, it has generated $330 million in fees, compared to Tether’s $430 million.
Tron’s fees surpasses that of Ethereum (ETH), which has generated $172 million this year while Solana (SOL) generated $278 million.
This growth is largely driven by Tron’s expanding presence in the stablecoin market. Its stablecoin market cap has surged to over $61 billion, while its transfer volume on Thursday alone was around $100 billion. The number of USDT holders on Tron has also continued to grow, reaching over 60.4 million.
Some of the fees generated on Tron are distributed to the network’s validators and holders through staking. According to StakingRewards, Tron’s staking yield stands at 4.5%, higher than Ethereum’s 3.12% and Sui’s 2.54%.
Beyond staking, other fundamental factors could drive TRX’s price higher in the coming months. Tron’s circulating supply has been steadily declining as more TRX tokens are burned than minted, creating a deflationary effect. The total number of TRX tokens in circulation has dropped to 86.11 billion, down from 86.15 billion a month ago.
Additionally, Tron’s network activity has been increasing. On Thursday, there were over 7 million transactions, up from 5.4 million a week earlier. This growth has pushed the cumulative transaction count past 9.56 billion.
Tron price wedge points to a strong rebound
The weekly chart shows that TRX has been forming a pattern of lower lows and lower highs since December. This pullback has created a falling wedge pattern, with two converging trend lines. Historically, a falling wedge signals a potential breakout as the price nears the point of convergence.
Tron has also found support at the 200-day exponential moving average, which it has failed to break below this month. This suggests that bears are reluctant to push the price lower.
Given these factors, TRX could see a strong bullish breakout in the coming weeks, with a potential target at its all-time high of $0.4485—an increase of about 96% from its current level. However, a drop below the 200-week moving average would invalidate this bullish outlook.
