Analysts believe that Bitcoin will likely rebound after a notable drop due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The threat of a regional war in the Middle East is escalating, and crypto markets are feeling the pressure. On Friday, June 13, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped nearly 5% to a daily low of $102,822, as Israel’s early-morning strike on Iran created risk-off sentiment in the market.
While Bitcoin declined on rising tensions, crude oil surged as much as 14%, a typical trend during Middle East crises. Gold also climbed 1.74% to $3,438.36 per ounce. Still, analysts believe that crypto markets may soon bounce back, either on de-escalation or a shift in the broader Bitcoin narrative.
The attack and the subsequent market sell-off caught traders off guard, said Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer at RedStone. He noted $427.84 million in liquidated long positions across Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) futures.
“Bitcoin dropped as much as 5% to $102,900, falling below the psychologically important $103,000 level. Ethereum shed even more, declining up to 7.6% at its worst point,” said Kazmierczak in comments sent to crypto.news.
Still, he emphasized that similar incidents in the past created “temporary dislocations,” often followed by price rebounds. Strikes in April 2024 led to a similar sell-off, which reversed after tensions eased.
“Those moments turned out to be great buying opportunities,” said Kazmierczak. “However, the current situation carries higher stakes given Israel’s direct targeting of Iran’s nuclear program and vows to continue operations indefinitely.”
In any case, Kazmierczak believes that an escalation of conflict will hurt risk assets, including Bitcoin. The recovery, he explained, will depend on how long it takes for tensions to subside.
Bitunix analyst suggests investors may flee to Bitcoin
Analysts at Bitunix take a different view. While they agree that risk assets are vulnerable to Middle East conflict, they believe Bitcoin may benefit. Specifically, investors may flee to Bitcoin as a safe haven.
“The conflict between Israel and Iran has pushed up the demand for risk aversion, and short-term geopolitical conflict risk aversion capital may flow into the crypto asset market. If geopolitical conflicts continue to rise, we cannot rule out the possibility of Bitcoin challenging the $110,350 liquidity target,” Bitunix analyst explained in a note.
Bitunix analysts caution against emotional trading and advise that traders monitor the U.S. stance on Iran. For now, the U.S. has distanced itself from the attack but did pre-emptively relocate some troops from bases near Iran.
