Ethereum price forms a bearish pennant as December closes with $545M ETF outflows, will it crash?

Ethereum price has slumped nearly 14% in December as net outflows from its spot exchange-traded funds topped nearly $545 million within the period. Will the largest altcoin extend losses now that it is close to confirming a bearish pennant pattern?

According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) price has fallen nearly 14% from its December high of $3,432. Trading at a little below $3,000 when writing, ETH losses were more severe when zooming out the charts, as it stands nearly 40% below its all-time high of $4,946.

Ethereum’s downtrend this month was largely due to waning demand from institutional investors, which in turn has impacted retail investor sentiment surrounding the altcoin. Data from SoSoValue shows that the nine U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs bled nearly $545 million in December, continuing the outflow trend seen in November when $1.42 billion left the investment products.

Demand from derivative traders has also shown no strong recovery. CoinGlass data shows that Ethereum futures open interest has largely remained around the $35 to $40 billion range, far below the $70 billion recorded in August.

Declining open interest means traders have been unwinding positions and placing fewer bets on price movements, which could make the asset less attractive for speculation.

Ethereum’s price action has been further dampened by a prevailing risk-off sentiment. This cautious investor stance is largely a reaction to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish lean heading into 2026, which has pushed investors away from risk assets like Ethereum towards safer alternatives.

At press time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index also marked a reading of 21, suggesting persistent extreme fear in the market, which has been prevalent throughout December. Cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum tend to remain suppressed when this metric stays at such low readings.

Ethereum price has formed a bearish pennant pattern on the daily chart. Such a pattern, characterized by a brief consolidation phase following a sharp decline, is often viewed as a bearish continuation signal. When confirmed, it tends to be seen as a precursor to further downside in an asset’s price by traders.

Technical indicators pointed to a bearish outlook for the altcoin, suggesting that a breakdown may take place soon. Notably, the 50-day simple moving average has crossed below the 200-day one, forming what is known as a death cross. 

Ethereum price is also trading below the 50-day moving average when writing, which means downward momentum remains in play and that buyers are struggling to regain control.

Additionally, the Supertrend indicator has also flashed red after moving above the current price level. Traders generally interpret this signal as a trigger to sell or short the asset, reinforcing the possibility of more losses ahead.

Given this setup, Ethereum price risks a decline toward its Nov. 21 low of $2,622 if the bearish pennant pattern is confirmed, especially as there appears to be no major support level in between.

On the contrary, a breakout above the immediate psychological resistance at $3,100 would invalidate the bearish setup and could open the door to a short-term recovery.