Kalshi has launched an in-house research unit and released data showing its inflation forecasts beat Wall Street.
Summary
- Kalshi launched Kalshi Research, offering academics access to its prediction market data.
- An internal study found Kalshi inflation forecasts beat Wall Street by 40% overall.
- The move comes amid rapid growth, major funding rounds, and ongoing regulatory scrutiny.
Kalshi is taking a step beyond trading. The U.S.-regulated prediction market has launched a dedicated research arm aimed at turning its data into a formal forecasting signal.
On Dec. 22, Kalshi announced the creation of Kalshi Research, an internal unit designed to support academic and applied research into prediction markets.
A research arm built on live market data
The group will give researchers access to Kalshi’s platform data, which the company describes as the largest and most detailed dataset of prediction market activity globally. The initiative mirrors research divisions at firms like OpenAI and Anthropic, positioning Kalshi not just as a market operator but as a data source for economic and policy analysis.
Alongside the launch, Kalshi said it will host the first Prediction Market Conference, bringing together academics, traders, forecasters, and market participants to present new findings.
Researchers from Harvard, Stanford, Yale, and the University of Chicago have already signed on. Calls for abstracts and conference registration are now open to the public.
Inflation study shows edge over Wall Street forecasts
Kalshi debuted the research arm with an internal study comparing its inflation forecasts to Wall Street consensus estimates. Using platform data, the study found that Kalshi forecasts outperformed traditional forecasts by 40% across different market conditions.
Measured one week before official inflation prints, Kalshi matched or beat Wall Street 85% of the time. The gap widened during volatile periods. In “shock” events, where outcomes diverged sharply from expectations, Kalshi’s forecasts showed a 50% lower mean absolute error, suggesting stronger performance when markets are under stress.
Kalshi said these results make its data useful not only for traders, but also for policymakers and executives preparing for sudden shifts in inflation and macro conditions.
The research launch comes during a period of rapid growth for Kalshi. The company raised $1 billion in early December at an $11 billion valuation, following a $300 million round in October that valued the firm at $5 billion. Investors include Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz.
Kalshi is also expanding its footprint. Coinbase is preparing to roll out prediction markets powered by Kalshi, and the company recently formed the Coalition for Prediction Markets with Crypto.com. International expansion plans are underway, with multiple country launches targeted within 18 months.
At the same time, regulatory pressure remains. The platform has faced legal challenges in several states including Connecticut and Nevada, keeping the door open to further operational friction at the state level.
