The Federal Reserve’s final FOMC meeting of 2025 is on the horizon, with markets positioning for a possible rate cut that could steer risk sentiment into early 2026.
Summary
- The FOMC meets on Dec. 9–10, with a policy statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference scheduled for Dec. 10.
- Markets price in an 87% chance of a 25bp rate cut to 3.50%–3.75%, alongside updated economic projections and confirmation of QT’s recent end.
- Risk assets, including crypto, could see sharp moves depending on whether the Fed maintains a dovish stance or signals caution heading into 2026.
Investors and economists will be closely watching the Federal Reserve’s final monetary policy meeting of 2025, which is scheduled for Dec. 9–10. The eighth Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year will examine employment data, inflation trends, economic conditions, and potential interest rate changes.
According to the Fed’s schedule, Dec. 9 is reserved for internal discussions, while Dec. 10 will usher in public announcements. The policy statement is set for 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Minutes from the meeting will be released three weeks later, on Jan. 8, 2026.
Rate decision and economic projections in focus
Markets currently assign an 87% chance that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 3.50%–3.75%. The rate now sits at 3.75%–4.00%, after the last cut in October. But committee members remain divided.
Citing conflicting inflation data and strong GDP growth, some have voiced caution. Analysts will keep a close eye on the updated dot plot since it might indicate more easing in 2026. If inflation keeps falling, an additional 50 basis points of cuts could be made.
The meeting will also confirm the end of quantitative tightening on Dec. 1, which concluded a $95 billion-per-month reduction in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities holdings. This change could increase liquidity in markets over time.
The FOMC meeting in December is particularly significant because it includes the Summary of Economic Projections, which guides inflation, growth, and interest rates. While currency traders modify their positions based on expectations for future policy, stock and bond markets frequently respond swiftly to these developments.
Implications for the crypto markets
Cryptocurrency markets are particularly sensitive to Fed decisions. Lower rates and higher liquidity usually encourage risk-taking, pushing money into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins.
Experts believe that a 25-point rate reduction might boost the cryptocurrency market. If history is any indication, Bitcoin could climb to somewhere between $95,000 and $100,000, with Ethereum and Solana likely following a similar path.
On the other hand, if the Fed decides to take a hawkish pause, Bitcoin might dip back towards the $87,000-$90,000 range, and altcoins could come under pressure as traders adjust their leveraged positions. On top of that, options data suggest that market volatility could jump by 20–30% over the day, showing just how sensitive investors are to Powell’s comments.
Whatever happens on Dec. 10, whether it triggers a year-end rally or a brief pullback, its impact is likely to influence risk assets and market sentiment well into the start of the new year.
