21Shares has cut several of its 2026 crypto forecasts, saying institutional adoption has continued to grow even as weaker prices and slower enterprise adoption have delayed parts of the industry’s recovery.
Summary
- 21Shares cut several 2026 crypto forecasts despite continued growth in institutional adoption and market infrastructure.
- The firm expects prediction markets to exceed $100 billion in annual trading volume while industry consolidation accelerates.
- 21Shares said ETF holdings remain near record highs, suggesting institutions continue accumulating despite market weakness.
According to 21Shares’ midyear outlook, the digital asset industry has continued to build stronger infrastructure despite a difficult market environment.
The asset manager said progress in areas including exchange-traded funds, stablecoin regulation, tokenization, and prediction markets has exceeded what recent price action suggests. Even so, weaker crypto prices, major decentralized finance exploits, and slower enterprise adoption have prompted the firm to reduce several expectations it had set earlier this year.
The report argues that institutional participation has increased without changing Bitcoin’s long-established market structure. According to 21Shares, Bitcoin reached roughly $126,000 in October 2025 before entering a decline that has largely followed historical post-halving patterns. While larger institutional ownership has reduced the severity of drawdowns, the firm said the four-year market cycle remains intact.
Former 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, who left the company after its acquisition by FalconX in 2025, recently expressed a similar view in a Substack post.
Snyder wrote that crypto’s investor base has become more institutional and increasingly tied to the wider financial system, making prices more responsive to macroeconomic developments, geopolitical events, and competing investment narratives.
Prediction markets and consolidation stand out
Among the strongest-performing segments, 21Shares identified prediction markets as one of the industry’s fastest-growing sectors. The firm expects annual trading volume in prediction markets to exceed $100 billion this year.
The report also identified consolidation as an accelerating trend across crypto markets. According to 21Shares, several publicly listed companies that hold digital assets on their balance sheets are trading below the value of their crypto holdings, increasing the likelihood of mergers or acquisitions among smaller treasury firms.
A comparable pattern is developing within Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem. The report said a small number of leading rollups continue to capture users and liquidity, while many smaller networks have struggled to build meaningful activity.
Institutional investors continue accumulating through volatility
Crypto investment products have also continued attracting institutional capital despite recent market weakness, according to the report.
Although U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded about $3 billion in net outflows this year, 21Shares said ETF holdings remain above 1.25 million BTC, close to a record high. The firm argued that these figures indicate many investors have maintained or quietly increased positions instead of exiting the market during the downturn.
Recent market volatility has nevertheless weighed on sentiment. As crypto.news reported earlier, a stronger-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation reading renewed concerns that the Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy tighter for longer, triggering nearly $1.5 billion in crypto liquidations and pushing Bitcoin, major altcoins, and crypto-related equities lower.
Earlier this week, Bank of America also revised its outlook to forecast three 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, citing persistent inflation risks.
Despite the latest selloff, some institutions have maintained their longer-term outlook. As crypto.news reported earlier in June, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick reiterated the bank’s $100,000 Bitcoin and $4,000 Ethereum targets after an earlier market decline.
Kendrick argued at the time that Bitcoin’s drop toward $59,000 likely represented the cycle low, while stronger ETF flows and institutional demand remained key conditions supporting the bank’s longer-term price targets.
Looking ahead, 21Shares said improving regulatory clarity in the U.S. continues to support product launches. The firm pointed to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s generic listing standards, which have accelerated approvals beyond Bitcoin and Ether products.
Hyperliquid was highlighted as one example, with the report noting that U.S. spot ETFs tracking the asset gathered more than $150 million in net inflows within their first month, signalling continued institutional interest in digital assets.
